Sugar Supply Estimates Published
Announced this week were the annual World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates.
According to the ISC Newsroom, these estimates (diligently generated by the USDA),
[forecast] supply and demand for most U.S. and many global crops and livestock products.
So that we can continue to offer the best wholesale sugar prices, we've been paying close attention to the sugar supply projections (as you might expect), especially given the recent sugar supply and demand environment.
To many industry analysts, there weren't any tremendous surprises, but estimates continue to slide thanks to bad weather.
For those who may have missed the news, the already lower 2009 estimates of the beet crop have dropped,
"... from 4.7 million tons to 4.4, primarily due to frost damage several weeks ago in the northern tier of sugar-growing states, including Montana, Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Minnesota and North Dakota."Quoted in the ISC Newsroom piece was Pat Hennenberry, Imperial Sugar's Chief of Commodities Management, who said,
"We believe that the market is considerably tighter than the USDA is estimating.Whether or not you completely agree with Hennenberry, a lot of analysts do believe that sugar supply will likely continue to be tight for some time.
"We worry that this may cause delay in increasing imports into the U.S., and that the market here will remain tight until sufficient imports are allowed."
The following data comes straight from the USDA's November 2009 publication.
| [Editor's Note: Worth noting in this report is a procedural change. With this change, imports and demand will be estimated more accurately thanks to better accounting of sugar imported from Mexico.] |
| Item | 2007/2008 | 2008/2009 (Est) |
October (Proj) | November (Proj) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beginning Stocks | 1,799 | 1,660 | 1,224 | 1,451 |
| Domestic Sugar Production | ||||
| Florida | 1,645 | 1,577 | 1,700 | 1,700 |
| Hawaii | 182 | 192 | 160 | 143 |
| Louisiana | 1,446 | 1,397 | 1,300 | 1,300 |
| Texas | 158 | 152 | 165 | 170 |
| Cane Sugar | 3,431 | 3,318 | 3,325 | 3,313 |
| Beet Sugar | 4,721 | 4,166 | 4,700 | 4,400 |
| Production Totals2,A | 8,152 | 7,484 | 8,025 | 7,713 |
| Imported Sugar | ||||
| TRQ3 | 1,354 | 1,370 | 1,257 | 1,257 |
| Other Program4 | 565 | 308 | 400 | 400 |
| Other5 | 701 | 1,404 | 505 | 770 |
| MexicoB | 694 | 1,402 | 495 | 760 |
| Imports | 2,620 | 3,082 | 2,162 | 2,427 |
| Exports | 203 | 137 | 200 | 200 |
| Food6 | 10,506 | 10,479 | 10,140 | 10,140 |
| Other7 | 202 | 159 | 235 | 235 |
| Deliveries | 10,708 | 10,638 | 10,375 | 10,375 |
| Miscellaneous | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ending Stocks | 1,660 | 1,451 | 836 | 1,016 |
| Stock-to-Use Ratio | 15.2 | 13.5 | 7.9 | 9.6 |
|
1 Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" (SMD) except imports (U.S. Customs Service, Census Bureau). 2 Production projections for 2009/10 are based on Crop Production and trend recovery rates. 3 For 2009/10, includes shortfall of 200,000 tons. 4 Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 5 For 2009/10, other high-tier (10) and other (0). 6 Combines SMD deliveries for domestic human food use, SMD miscellaneous uses, and the difference between SMD imports and WASDE imports. 7 Transfers to sugar-containing products for re-export, and for non-edible alcohol and feed. A Production Totals are the sum of Beet Sugar & Cane Sugar. B Mexico Totals are included in "Other." |
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If you're concerned about how the sugar supply (and national / international demand) will affect your business, you'd be well served to read the full report.
If you need a quote for your next wholesale sugar order, contact us so we can help provide the best quality food ingredients at the best prices.
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